Author name: PaymentEarth

Daily Market Report 08/11/2026 EUR/USD ranged in the mid 1.15s overnight. EUR/USD trades around 1.1535 on Tuesday at the time of writing, posting a modest 0.06% decline on the day. The pair is moving further away from its recent seven-week high of 1.1581 as the stalemate in negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran keeps geopolitical tensions elevated and supports Oil prices. Analysts highlight the increasingly subdued trading backdrop, noting that “EUR/USD realised volatility continues to sink and one-year is now at 5.8% – matching the low from November 2024.” They add that “it is hard to see that environment changing anytime soon – or at least until mid-September when central bankers around the world return from their summer breaks,” reinforcing the view that near-term price action is likely to remain constrained. Analysts also flags positioning risks on the European side, referencing recent work on “the dollar hedge ratios of European investors.” The bank cautions that “the risk here is that European investors in the US are once again underhedged and have to quickly raise their dollar hedge ratios should the Dollar look vulnerable again,” a dynamic that could influence flows if sentiment toward the Dollar shifts. The GBP/USD pair seesaws between tepid gains and minor losses through the early European session on Tuesday, though it remains close to the highest level since July 16 set the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3500 psychological mark, nearly unchanged for the day, as traders opt to wait for this week’s important macro releases from the US and the UK. The crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released on Wednesday, followed by the preliminary UK Q2 GDP figures on Thursday and the US Producer Price Index (PPI). In the meantime, the US-Iran standoff, along with bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will adopt a more hawkish stance amid inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices, supports the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and caps GBP/USD. The USD/JPY pair reverses an intraday dip to sub-159.00 levels and climbs to the top end of its daily range during the early part of the European session on Tuesday. Spot prices currently trade around the 159.25-159.30 region, near a one-and-a-half-week top set on Monday, and seem poised to build on the recent solid recovery from the lowest level since early May. Source: FX Street

Daily Market Report 08/10/2026 EUR/USD ranged in the mid to high 1.15s overnight. EUR/USD keeps its range near 1.1550 in the European session on Monday, holding the retreat from fresh highs since June 17, touched in reaction to the disappointing US jobs data on Friday. Renewed Middle East tensions lend support to the safe-haven US Dollar, capping the pair’s upside attempts amid improved Eurozone sentiment data. The closely watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) showed that the economy lost 23K jobs in July, missing consensus estimates of 80K by a wide margin. Adding to this, the previous month’s reading was revised lower to show an addition of 20K jobs, compared to the 57K reported originally. Further details revealed that annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, eased to 3.2% from 3.4%. This offsets a dip in the Unemployment Rate to 4.1%, from 4.2% in June, and undermines the case for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates. The immediate market reaction, however, turns out to be short-lived as persistent uncertainties over efforts to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz lend some support to the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, is now looking to build on Friday’s late rebound from its lowest level since June 17 and is turning out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair. Traders, however, seem reluctant to place directional bets and opt to wait for further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis. GBP/USD trades with caution around 1.3400 in European trading on Monday, away from an over three-week high, or levels just above the 1.3500 psychological mark touched on Friday. The pair faces headwinds from a modest US Dollar rebound as investors rush to safety amid renewed jitters on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran talks. Investors are still assigning a greater probability of at least one 25-basis-point (bps) rate increase before the end of this year amid concerns that recovering oil prices will rekindle inflationary pressures. Hence, the focus shifts to the latest US inflation figures, due this week. Apart from this, the incoming geopolitical headlines will drive the USD and influence the GBP/USD pair. The US Dollar has retraced previous losses against the Japanese Yen on Monday. The USD/JPY trades at 158.38, holding within an ascending channel from August 3 lows at 155.23. Momentum indicators show mild upside traction, with the Relative Strength Index (14) crossing above the 50 midline and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at modestly positive levels, altogether hinting at a stabilizing upside momentum within this short-term uptrend. Source: FX Street

Daily Market Report 08/07/2026 EUR/USD ranged in the low to mid 1.15s overnight. Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have rattled market stability and created significant skepticism regarding the reopening of this critical shipping route. Market caution remains elevated as Iran’s parliament evaluates a draft proposal that seeks to prohibit US and Israeli vessels, levy a 20% cargo penalty on hostile nations, and maintain restrictions on the corridor until the US blockade is removed. Adding to the market volatility, rising US Treasury yields and a rebound in crude oil prices have stoked fears that the Federal Reserve might implement another interest rate hike next month. Despite these inflationary signals, the CME FedWatch Tool currently reflects a 54.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase in September, down from 63.4% last week. Investors and traders are now closely eyeing the upcoming July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report to gauge the health of the labor market and better anticipate the Fed’s monetary policy path. EUR/USD keeps its range above 1.1500 in European trading on Friday, as the US Dollar consolidates the recent recovery, following renewed tensions in the Middle East and on the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Traders now eagerly await the July US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for a clear directional impetus. GBP/USD remains defensive around 1.3450 in the European session on Friday, undermined by a broadly resilient US Dollar. The Middle East uncertainty is back in play, keeping the haven demand for the Greenback intact ahead of the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release. The pair also faces downward pressure as the US Dollar (USD) gains strength, propelled by renewed safe-haven demand among global investors. Analysts observe that “fundamentals appear to be somewhat less supportive for the GBP, as we note the renewed softening in yield spreads,” tempering the near-term backdrop for the currency. However, they also highlight that “sentiment continues to improve” as “market participants continue to fade politically-motivated concerns following the recent political transition and arrival of PM Burnham.” In their view, “the new PM’s commitment to fiscal responsibility appears to be much stronger than expected,” helping to offset the drag from softer yield differentials and underpinning a more constructive tone toward the Pound. The Japanese Yen trades almost flat against the US Dollar at around 158.42 during the European trading session on Friday. The USD/JPY pair consolidates as investors await the United States Nonfarm Payrolls data for July, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. Ahead of the US NFP data, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades flat at around 100.00. The impact of the US NFP data will be significant for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook in the absence of so-called “forward guidance” from the central bank. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) has broadly underperformed this week due to the absence of follow-up US-Japan joint intervention. Source: FX Street

Daily Market Report 08/06/2026 EUR/USD ranged in the low to mid 1.15s overnight. EUR/USD is turning south toward 1.1500 in the European session on Thursday, pressured by a modest US Dollar rebound. Markets stay wary about the prospects of a US-Iran peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, keeping the safe-haven USD underpinned. The focus is now on the US Jobless Claims data, following weak Eurozone Retail Sales report. On Wednesday, the ADP reported the fresh addition of 44K payrolls in the private sector in July, lower than estimates of 70K and the prior release of 98K. For more cues regarding the US labor market, investors await the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be released on Friday. According to TD Securities, July’s jobs report is expected to show only a slight improvement after June’s downside surprise. The bank’s economists look for “July NFP [to have] picked up modestly to 70k after surprising to the downside with 57k in June,” and judge that “risks to our payrolls forecast appear balanced.” They also anticipate that the unemployment rate will show little change, with “the UE rate likely [having] went sideways at 4.2% after declining in June,” reinforcing their view of a broadly stable labor market backdrop. GBP/USD drifts lower to near 1.3460 in European trading on Thursday. Strategists at Scotiabank highlight a quiet near-term macro backdrop for the Pound, noting that “the release calendar is limited over the next week or so with no major data scheduled ahead of the preliminary Q2 GDP print on August 13.” This leaves the upcoming growth figures as the key domestic catalyst for GBP/USD, with investors likely to treat the data vacuum as a period of consolidation before reassessing the UK outlook once the GDP numbers are in hand. USD/JPY trades at around157.83, keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot remains below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 160.55. The pair has retreated from recent highs, and the EMA overhead suggests prices are still capped despite the latest bounce attempt, pointing to a market that is correcting rather than trending higher. Source: FX Street

Daily Market Report 08/5/2026 EUR/USD ranged in the low to mid 1.15s overnight. The Greenback may face challenges due to easing safe-haven demand amid building diplomatic momentum around a potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Qatari officials announced on Tuesday that an interim proposal had been drafted, with both Washington and Tehran signaling tangible progress toward restoring access to the critical maritime transit route. This diplomatic breakthrough follows US President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend planned military strikes against Iran, choosing instead to give negotiations space while maintaining his call for the immediate reopening of the waterway. EUR/USD holds ground near 1.1550 in the early European hours on Wednesday. The pair stays supported amid hopes for a US-Iran deal on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which lifts risk sentiment and keeps the safe-haven US Dollar on the back foot. The US ADP Employment data and ISM Services PMI report are in the spotlight alongside Mideast headlines. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed on Tuesday that US JOLTS Job Openings stood at 7.359 million in June. This figure followed the 7.537 million openings seen in May and came in below the market expectation of 7.4 million. Traders will closely monitor the US July employment data on Friday, which could offer more clues about the health of the labor market and the US interest rate path. In case of weaker-than-expected outcomes, this could undermine the USD against the EUR in the near term. GBP/USD is inching higher above 1.3450 in European trading on Wednesday, helped by reduced haven appeal for the US Dollar as markets cheer a potential US-Iran deal on the Strait of Hormuz reopening. The decision is due later in the day. Traders also look forward to the US ADP and ISM Services PMI data. The Japanese Yen gives back its early gains and flattens at around 157.70 against the US Dollar during the European trading session. The USD/JPY bounces back as the Asia-Pacific currency faces pressure, with investors turning cautious regarding the sustainability of its recent strength. Source: FX Street