October 2026

Daily Market Report 10/09/2026 EUR/USD ranged in the high 1.11’s to the low 1.12’s overnight. The EUR/USD pair attracts buyers for the second straight day, rising to the 1.1225-1.1230 area during the Asian session on Friday amid a weak US Dollar (USD). Spot prices, however, remain confined within a range held since the beginning of this month, warranting some caution for bulls. Concerns about France’s deepening debt levels and political gridlock ahead of next year’s election might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets on the shared currency. This, along with a bearish technical setup, suggests that strong follow-through buying is needed to confirm that the EUR/USD pair has formed a near-term bottom and is positioned for an extension of this week’s modest recovery from the 1.1160 region, or the lowest level since May 2025. The GBP/USD pair gathers strength to around 1.3240 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) softens against the British Pound (GBP) following comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller. Traders will keep an eye on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data for October later on Friday. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that additional rate hikes will likely be needed to lower inflation to the Fed’s 2% target, but added there was “flexibility” about ‌the pace of increases and left the door open for a pause at the upcoming October meeting. Markets are now pricing in nearly a 17.7% chance that the US central bank will lift the interest rate at least 25 basis points (bps) at the policy meeting later this month, down from 38% a week ago, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Markets are pricing in an 83% chance of a hike at the Fed’s December meeting. However, UK fiscal concerns could weigh on the Cable in the near term. After the UK’s long-term borrowing costs reached their highest level since the 1990s last week, the focus remains firmly on Finance Minister John Healey’s first budget on October 28. The US Dollar (USD) ticks up against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Friday but remains trapped in a tight range, with downside attempts contained above the 157.50 area and the 200-day SMA at 158.54, which holds bulls for now. Soft Japanese household spending data has failed to support the Yen, but the US Dollar is showing some weakness against most of its peers as US Treasury yields pulled back from multi-decade highs. Data from the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry revealed that Household Spending dropped 3.1% year-over-year in August. The decline is softer than the 3.6% expected by the market, but it marks the eighth consecutive contraction, which confirms that the country’s domestic demand keeps weakening. The Yen, however, received some support from comments by Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) new committee member, Ayano Sato, supporting gradual monetary tightening earlier this week. Sato is one of the two members who voted against September’s rate hike, and these comments clear the way for a steeper tightening cycle by the Japanese Central bank. Source: FX Street

Daily Market Report 10/08/2026 EUR/USD ranged in the high 1.11’s to the low 1.12’s overnight. The Euro (EUR) is trading flat at 1.1200 against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as the rebound in oil prices and the ongoing tensions in bond markets keep EUR/USD buyers in check. Looking from a wider perspective, the pair maintains its broader bearish trend intact, on track for a 3.5% sell-off in a five-week losing streak. The bond markets’ rout has set the Euro in the eye of the storm, as France’s borrowing costs soared to levels above those of the 2009 financial crisis. With the French government in a gridlock, the Governor of the Bank of France has felt compelled to come out and assure that the country does not need help from the European Central Bank, which has not precisely soothed investors. The Oil price rally is only making things worse. On the one hand, it adds pressure on Eurozone Crude-importing economies, while, on the other, it spurs market expectations that central banks will have to pursue restrictive policies to combat inflation, ultimately contributing to higher global yields. The GBP/USD pair struggles to gain any meaningful traction, trading near the 1.3200 mark through the Asian session on Thursday and within striking distance of the lowest level since late June, touched last week. The US Dollar (USD) retains its bullish undertone near an 18-month high amid the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish outlook, elevated US bond yields and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair, though bets for tighter monetary policy ‌from the Bank of England (BoE) offer some support to the British Pound (GBP) and help limit deeper losses. The recent range-bound price action witnessed over the past two weeks or so could be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the decline from the August swing high. The top end of the said range now coincides with the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, suggesting that rallies are vulnerable while the broader structure leans lower. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Regional Economic Report, known as the Sakura report, maintains an unchanged economic assessment for 7 of 9 regions across Japan. Many regions said firms were passing on rising costs from the Middle East conflict, the weak Japanese Yen (JPY) as well as distribution and labor costs. Source: FX Street

Daily Market Report 10/07/2026 EUR/USD ranged in the high 1.11’s to mid 1.12’s overnight. The Euro (EUR) heads south against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, giving away Tuesday’s gains weighed by rising Oil prices and broad-based US Dollar strength ahead of the release of the minutes of the last Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. The EUR/USD pair is trading at session lows in the area of 1.1225, down from Tuesday’s highs at 1,1275, and unfazed by the strong German Industrial Production release. The Euro found some relief on Tuesday as the far-right Marine Le Pen, the best-positioned candidate to win next year’s presidential elections, announced a plan to cut spending. Le Pen vowed to save costs by EUR 140 billion in the next five years, and bring the fiscal deficit to levels below 3% by 2030 from the current 5.1%. The plan thrilled investors. French government bond yields retreated from multi-decade highs and the EUR/USD bounced to the upper range of the 1.1200s from 17-month lows, near 1.1160 on Monday. The US Dollar, on the other hand, is regaining lost ground against its most peers on Wednesday, as investors brace for the release of the minutes of September’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting due later in the day. The Fed hiked rates by 25 basis points for the first time in three years and hinted at further tightening ahead. The GBP/USD pair weakens further below mid-1.3200s during the first half of the European session on Wednesday, eroding a major part of the previous day’s move higher amid a broadly firmer US Dollar (USD). Spot prices, however, remain confined in a familiar range held over the past two weeks or so as traders keenly await the release of FOMC Minutes before placing fresh directional bets. Strategists note that their expectation for GBP/USD to “range-trade between 1.3195 and 1.3245” proved incorrect after the Pound “rose to a high of 1.3286.” They acknowledge that “upward momentum has increased, albeit not significantly,” and now judge that “today, there is a chance for GBP to retest 1.3285.” However, they add that “a continued rise above this level is unlikely,” with the “major resistance at 1.3315” also “unlikely to come under threat.” On the downside, strategists highlights “support is at 1.3240, followed by 1.3220.” The Japanese Yen (JPY) holds marginal gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. The USD/JPY pair has pulled back to levels near 158.00 from two-week highs at 158.51 following hawkish comments by Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Ayano Sato, although the overall US Dollar strength and higher Oil prices are keeping Yen rallies limited so far. The Japanese Yen appreciated after the comments, but the impact on the USD/JPY pair has been moderate so far. The Greenback maintains its firm tone, with investors wary of selling the Greenback ahead of the release of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting and with rising Oil prices weighing on oil-importing countries, such as Japan. Source: FX Street

Daily Market Report 10/06/2026 EUR/USD ranged in the low to mid 1.12’s overnight. The Euro (EUR) keeps heading lower against a firmer US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, as growing political uncertainty and a deteriorating fiscal outlook have renewed fears of debt contagion in the region. German Factory Orders have failed to provide significant support, pushing the EURUSD pair toward the 1.1200 level after a mild recovery attempt, which it was capped just below 1.1230 earlier in the day. Report highlight the decline in sales of transport equipment, such as aircraft, ships, trains and military vehicles,  which fell 61% on seasonally adjusted terms after having doubled in July, as the main reason for August’s figures. Excluding large-scale orders, sales of all other items declined a mere 0.1%. The Euro remains under pressure amid rising concerns about public finances, with the gap between France’s OAT yield and the German Bund at levels unseen since the 2009 financial crisis. France is also facing a political gridlock that discards any significant savings plan, at least until the presidential elections in 2027, and to make things worse, Spanish President Pedro Sanchez announced a snap election in November. If we add to this the fragility of Frederich Merz’s cabinet in Germany, we obtain the picture of the uncertain political scenario that keeps investors away from the Euro. The GBP/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers near the 1.3200 mark on Tuesday and hits a fresh daily high during the first half of the European session. Spot prices, however, remain confined in a familiar range held over the past two weeks or so and currently trade around the 1.3240 region, up less than 0.10% for the day. The US Dollar (USD) edges lower as bulls opt to take some profits off the table following the recent strong rally to the highest level since April 2025, offering some support to the GBP/USD pair. Furthermore, traders have been pricing in tighter monetary policy from the Bank of England (BoE) amid sticky inflation due to elevated energy prices, which further underpins the British Pound (GBP) and contributes to the intraday move up. The downside for the USD, however, seems cushioned amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. Moreover, traders are still pricing in over an 85% chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise borrowing costs again by the year-end. This, along with elevated US bond yields, backs the case for the emergence of some USD dip-buying and should keep a lid on the GBP/USD pair. The USD/JPY pair attracts some buyers following the previous day’s two-day price moves, trading above the 158.00 mark during the early part of the European session on Tuesday. Spot prices await a breakout through the top boundary of a nearly one-week-old range before the next leg up amid the underlying strong bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD). Traders are still pricing in over an 85% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year. Moreover, persistent geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and elevated US bond yields underpin the safe-haven buck. The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, is undermined by diminishing odds for more aggressive tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). In fact, three sources familiar with the central bank’s thinking said that some BoJ policymakers remain cautious about another interest rate hike later this month. Source: FX Street

Daily Market Report 10/05/2026 EUR/USD ranged in the low to mid 1.12’s overnight. The Euro (EUR) maintains its bearish tone against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, following a string of mixed Services Activity figures and weak Investor Confidence data, with concerns about France’s fiscal health weighing heavily. The EUR/USD pair is trying to come back above 1.1200 at the time of writing after bouncing from fresh 17-month lows near 1.1160 earlier on the day, and following a 3% decline in the previous four weeks. The Euro has come under additional pressure on Monday as France’s borrowing costs soar amid rising social unrest, and with the gridlock in the government practically discarding any credible savings plan. The yield of the French 10-year government bond hit 4.99% on Friday, surpassing the peak of 2008, which has reactivated concerns of a credit crisis that might extend to other Eurozone members. Risk aversion keeps fueling the US Dollar against its main peers on Monday, offsetting the negative impact of the soft labor report seen on Friday and the dwindling hopes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates in October. The British Pound (GBP) claws back some of its early losses against the US Dollar (USD), but is still 0.15% down to near 1.3220 during the European trading session on Monday. The GBP/USD pair recovers slightly as the US Dollar Index retreats after hitting a fresh annual high near 102.53. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates in the policy meeting later this month have diminished to 19.4% from 70.9% seen a week ago. Traders have scaled back hawkish Fed expectations after the release of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September on Friday, which showed a moderate job growth. However, market experts believe that the negative reaction in hawkish Fed prospects after the US NFP data release could prove to be short-term, as high inflation is key challenge for the United States (US) central bank. Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux argues that the softer US payrolls report has reinforced the recent pullback in expectations for near‑term Fed tightening, but the bank stresses that it is “not a game changer for the hawkish predisposition of the Fed – inflation is the bogeyman.” In their view, the latest jobs print instead “justifies caution over cadence and quantity of future policy adjustments articulated last week by FOMC voter Williams,” tempering the pace and scale of any further tightening even as inflation remains the central focus for policymakers. The USD/JPY pair struggles to capitalize on Friday’s bounce from sub-157.00 levels, touched in reaction to the weak US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses through the first half of the European session. Spot prices currently trade just below the 158.00 mark, nearly unchanged for the day amid mixed cues. Traders have been pricing in a greater chance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates again as soon as October, which, along with looming intervention risks, underpins the Japanese Yen (JPY). The US Dollar  (USD), on the other hand, retreats slightly after hitting a fresh high since April 2025 and contributes to capping the USD/JPY pair. However, persistent geopolitical uncertainties might continue to benefit the safe-haven USD and help limit the downside for the currency pair. Source: FX Street