October 2026

Daily Market Report 10/29/2026 EUR/USD ranged in the mid 1.11’s overnight. The Euro (EUR) trades lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with price action contained within Wednesday’s range, as investors bide their time ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision. The EUR/USD pair edges down to the 1.1130 area from highs near 1.1170 on Wednesday, with bears looking at the 17-month low at 1.1113. Sentiment data released by the European Commission on Thursday was mixed. Business Climate picked up to 0.09 in October from -0.05 in September, reaching positive figures for the first time in the last three years, while Consumer Confidence remained unchanged at -17.9, and the Economic Sentiment Index declined to 96.9 against market expectations of a steady 97.5 reading. Later in the day, the ECB is widely expected to leave its Deposit Facility rate unchanged at 2.5% and, highly likely, to hint at further monetary tightening ahead, as the high Oil prices stemming from the Middle East war are boosting consumer inflation at levels well above the ECB’s target. The British Pound (GBP) edges down to near 1.3312 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair ticks lower as the US Dollar (USD) regains ground, with financial markets remaining confident of Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate hike in December after leaving them steady in the policy meeting on Wednesday. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly higher to near 102.20. The USD Index corrected on Wednesday after a three-day winning streak. On the UK front, investors await the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision, which will be announced next week. The BoE is almost certain to hike interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4%. The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades almost flat against the US Dollar (USD) at around 157.80 during the European trade on Thursday. The USD/JPY pair consolidates as investors shift their focus to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy announcement on Friday. Tomorrow, market participants will also focus on the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October, which will be published before the BoJ’s monetary policy decision. Tokyo CPI ex. Fresh Food is seen lower at 2.6% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 2.7% in September. Source: FX Street

Daily Market Report 10/28/2026 EUR/USD ranged in the low 1.11’s overnight. The EUR/USD pair trades on a weaker note near 1.1120 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Markets could turn cautious later in the day ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday. On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting will be in the spotlight. Markets expect the Fed to hold benchmark rates steady in a range of 3.75%-4.00% when it releases its decision Wednesday. Fed funds futures are pricing in an implied 92.8% chance the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will keep its policy interest rate on hold, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The likelihood of a US rate hike in December stands at 84.4%. “The Fed doesn’t need to hike today to move markets,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group in Melbourne. “It simply needs to change the perceived probability of hiking in December.” On the Euro’s front, the ECB is likely to leave its key interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting on Thursday following a 25 bps hike in September. Meanwhile, high energy costs, the volatility in French government bonds and worries about France’s fiscal position might cap the upside for the shared currency in the near term. The British Pound (GBP) is heading south against the US Dollar (USD) for the fourth consecutive day on Wednesday, with investors awaiting the release of the UK budget and the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision, both due later in the day. The GBP/USD pair has reached a fresh two-week low at 1.3275, before picking up to 1.3295 at the time of writing. In the UK, the highlight of the week is the release of the first budget of Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s cabinet, with the main focus on the plans to finance the tax exemptions announced by the cabinet to ease British citizens’ cost of living. Markets remain wary, with the UK’s public finances strained as total public debt surpassed GBP 3 trillion in September, amid a significant increase in net borrowing. The previous chancellor, Rachel Reeves, left a GBP 23.6 billion buffer, but the surge in debt costs is likely to have eaten up approximately half of it. With bond markets jumpy, and the 2022 Liz Truss fiasco still fresh, the details of Chancellor Healey’s budget are likely to trigger some Pound volatility. The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to underperform against the US Dollar (USD) as the latter strengthens amid caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy at 18:00 GMT. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 102.50, the highest level seen in over a week. Strategists at OCBC expect the Fed to remain patient in the near term, writing that they “expect the Federal Reserve to stay on hold in October, with the focus shifting quickly to December.” They highlight that “September CPI surprised to the upside,” and note that this comes against a backdrop where “most FOMC participants had already indicated that another hike could be appropriate by year-end,” keeping attention firmly on the policy path into the final meeting of 2024. Source: FX Street

Daily Market Report 10/27/2026 EUR/USD ranged in the mid to high 1.11’s overnight. The Euro (EUR) extends its losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) for the fifth trading day on Tuesday. The EUR/USD pair slumps to near 1.1140 as the Euro underperforms due to revival of concerns in French bond market. Yields on French bonds have rebounded after a two-day correction. As of writing, 10-year French bond yields are up 1.42% to near 4.97%. French bond yields correct in the past two days after Moody’s defied market expectations and maintained their Aa3 rating (negative outlook) on the sovereign. Caution among market participants ahead of European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy announcement on Thursday, and key economic releases such as preliminary German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for October and Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Friday has also weighed on the Euro. The GBP/USD pair drifts lower for the third straight day on Tuesday, extending its recent pullback from the highest level since September 16, around the 1.3420 area, touched last week. Spot prices dropped to a one-week low during the first half of the European session and currently trade around the 1.3320 region, down 0.15% for the day amid sustained US Dollar (USD) buying. The downside, however, seems limited as traders might opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of the key event risks on Wednesday. UK Chancellor John Healey will deliver his first Autumn Budget amid Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s big spending plans. This will be followed by the crucial US Federal Reserve (Fed) decision at the conclusion of a two-day meeting, which will influence the USD price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the GBP/USD pair. From a technical perspective, spot prices hold a mildly capped tone following the recent failed attempt to find acceptance above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3401. The GBP/USD pair slides to the mid-range of the recent Fibonacci retracement, with immediate support emerging at the 38.2% level near 1.3311. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains above zero, with the line still positive but contracting. The USD/JPY pair trades with a positive bias for the third straight day on Tuesday, recovering further from an over one-month low, around the 156.00 neighborhood, touched last week. Spot prices, however, lack follow-through buying and currently trade around the 157.70 region, up just over 0.10% for the day, as traders seem hesitant ahead of key central bank events. Expectations that the BoJ may hold off on aggressive rate hikes keep the so-called carry trade active and continue to undermine the Japanese Yen (JPY). The USD, on the other hand, attracts some follow-through buyers for the third straight day amid the growing acceptance that the US central bank will stick to its hawkish stance amid inflation fears stemming from elevated energy prices. Moreover, the geopolitical risk premium remains in play amid tensions in the Middle East, lending additional support to the safe-haven Greenback and backing the case for a further appreciating move for the USD/JPY pair. Source: FX Street

Daily Market Report 10/26/2026 EUR/USD ranged in the high 1.11’s  to the low 1.12’s overnight. The Euro (EUR) trades higher against its peers on Monday. In the European trade, the major currency is slightly higher at around 1.1210 against the US Dollar, but has given back some of its early gains. The Euro attracts bids as Moody’s keep France’s sovereign rating unchanged at Aa3, while it was expected to downgrade. Analysts at Danske Bank note that Moody’s decision late on Friday to keep France’s sovereign rating unchanged at Aa3 with a negative outlook ran counter to “wide market expectations of a downgrade.” They highlight that the agency’s stance rests on the assumption “that a deficit-reducing 2027 budget will be adopted and that financing costs and social tensions will abate somewhat in the coming months.” Danske Bank points out that Moody’s now “expects a deficit of 5.2% of GDP next year, down from the 5.4% the government expects this year but slightly above its 5% target.” The British Pound (GBP) extends its reversal from the five-week highs reached against the US Dollar (USD) last week, as investors trim USD short positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting, due on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair hits session lows just below 1.3350, on Monday about 0.5% below last week’s peak, at 1.3419. Market volatility remains at relatively low levels, as traders bide their time ahead of monetary policy decisions by the Fed and other central banks later this week, with the US Dollar showing a somewhat firmer stance than in the previous weeks. The US central bank is widely expected to leave its monetary policy unchanged on Wednesday. Fed policymakers have been requesting some more time to assess the impact of September’s rate hike before tightening monetary policy further, which has prompted investors to ditch hopes of back-to-back interest rate hikes. The USD/JPY pair gains as the US Dollar claws back its early losses and turns positive. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.12% higher to near 101.87. The Greenback gains as investors turn cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is almost certain to leave interest rates steady in the 3.75%-4.00% range, which makes the monetary policy guidance a key catalyst for the US Dollar’s outlook. Source: FX Street

Daily Market Report 10/23/2026 EUR/USD ranged in the high 1.19’s  to the low 1.12’s overnight. The EUR/USD pair attracts sellers for the second straight day in reaction to mostly disappointing Eurozone PMIs, trading near the lower end of the weekly range, around the 1.1200 mark during the first half of the European session on Friday. The preliminary estimate showed that private sector business activity in the Eurozone expanded at a slower pace in October, with the HCOB Composite PMI falling to 51.9 from 53.1 in the previous month. This comes on top of softening growth in Germany – the Eurozone’s largest economy – and an unexpected contraction in France’s private-sector business activity. Apart from this, deep sovereign debt and political crisis in France continue to undermine the shared currency, which, along with the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) buying, exerts some pressure on the EUR/USD pair. The British Pound (GBP) is down against its major currency peers on Friday, trading 0.1% lower at around 1.3380 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trade. The British currency faces pressure even as United Kingdom (UK) flash S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for October has come in surprisingly stronger. The PMI report showed that the overall business activity remained robust due to a significant growth in both manufacturing and the service sector output. The Composite PMI arrives at 53.1, significantly higher than final reading of 52.0 in September. The data was expected to come in lower at 51.8. “The UK economy has picked up momentum in October, with early PMI data indicating the strongest rate of growth since February. This encouraging sign of economic resilience is underscored by firms taking on additional workers for the first time since hiring was hit by the 2024 Autumn Budget,” Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. The USD/JPY pair stages a goodish intraday bounce from the 156.00 neighborhood, or an over one-month low touched earlier this Friday, and sticks to modest gains through the early European session. Spot prices look to build on the momentum further beyond the 157.00 mark amid a broadly firmer US Dollar (USD), albeit seem poised to register heavy weekly losses. Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, published earlier today, reaffirmed market bets for an imminent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Furthermore, traders remain on high alert amid speculation that any further depreciation in the Japanese Yen (JPY) could trigger direct currency intervention from authorities. This might cap the upside for the USD/JPY pair ahead of next week’s key central bank events. Source: FX Street