September 2026

Daily Market Report 09/18/2026 EUR/USD ranged in the mid to high 1.14’s overnight. The Euro (EUR) trades in a tight range at around 1.1485 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The major currency pair turns sideways after posting a fresh six-week low near 1.1456 as investors look beyond hawkish interest rate decisions by both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). The ECB raised its key policy rates by 25 basis points (bps), as expected, in an attempt to counter rising inflationary pressures. The ECB still sees risks to inflation remaining to the upside, but not significant evidence of second-round inflation effects. However, financial markets have raised ECB interest rate hike expectations amid higher energy prices. Strategists highlight the sharp repricing at the front end of European curve, noting that, as reported by Bloomberg, “money markets are now fully pricing four 25-bps rate increases by the ECB over the next 12 months. This week, the US Dollar outperformed as the Fed broke the five-meeting hold streak and raised interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%-4.00% range. The Fed was expected to do so as the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed signs of stickiness in inflationary pressures. The Fed also acknowledged price pressures remaining higher for long and signaled at least one more interest rate hike this year. The British Pound (GBP) is up 0.1% at around 1.3372 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The GBP/USD pair gains as the British currency rises, following the release of the surprisingly upbeat United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for August. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported that Retail Sales grew by 0.5% Month-on-Month (MoM) after declining at a similar pace. The data was expected to contract by 0.2%. While the British currency has reacted positively to the Retail Sales data, it underperformed the entire data-packed and Bank of England (BoE) policy week. The Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms its major currency peers on Friday after the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy announcement. In the European trade, the USD/JPY pair trades 1.3% higher to near 158.00. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterates that the central bank will remain on the monetary tightening path, allowing market experts to price in more interest rate hikes in the near term. According to TD Securities, the latest BoJ communication “provides strong justification for additional hikes,” reinforcing the policy trajectory outlined in its earlier guidance. The firm notes that the statement “reaffirmed the case for 25bps increases in the cash rate roughly every quarter,” effectively “validating the hawkish July framework” and underscoring the BoJ’s commitment to a gradual but persistent normalization of policy. Source: FX Street

Daily Market Report 09/17/2026 EUR/USD ranged in the high 1.14’s to the low 1.15s overnight. The Euro (EUR) consolidates losses at one-and-a-half-month lows on Thursday, with the US Dollar (USD) still buoyed by the hawkish message sent by the Federal Reserve (Fed) after Wednesday’s monetary policy meeting. The EUR/USD pair is trading practically flat at the 1.1475 level, after depreciating more than 1% so far this week. The Fed hiked rates by a quarter-point for the first time in three years on Wednesday, meeting market expectations, but the hawkish tone shown by Chairman Kevin Warsh, whose distaste for forward guidance is notorious, came as an absolute surprise. Warsh affirmed during the press release that “inflation remains elevated” and that the “economy appears to be strengthening,” which markets interpreted as a clear sign that further rate hikes are in the pipeline. These comments restored confidence in the central bank’s independence while boosting hopes of further rate hikes later this year, which sent the US Dollar rallying against its main peers. The GBP/USD pair stages a modest recovery from its lowest level since July 30, around the 1.3375-1.3370 region touched earlier this Thursday, and, for now, seems to have snapped a three-day losing streak. Spot prices, however, capitalize on the momentum beyond the 1.3400 mark as traders seem hesitant ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) policy update. The UK central bank will announce its decision later today and is widely expected to keep interest rates steady, suggesting that the focus will be on the MPC vote distribution and forward guidance. Market players are currently pricing in at least one 25-basis-points (bps) rate hike by the BoE in 2026 amid inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices. Hence, the outlook will play a key role in influencing the British Pound (GBP) and provide a fresh impetus to the GBP/USD pair. Meanwhile, a modest pullback in US Treasury bond yields triggers some US Dollar (USD) profit-taking, which, in turn, is seen supporting the currency pair heading into the key central bank event. However, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish tilt and escalating Middle East tensions continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD, capping the GBP/USD pair. In fact, the US central bank raised rates for the first time since 2023 at the conclusion of the September meeting on Wednesday. USD/JPY depreciates after three days of gains, trading around 155.80 during the European session on Thursday. The pair loses ground as the Japanese Yen (JPY) advances on market expectations of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Friday. Japanese officials offered cautious remarks on Thursday, with Economy Minister Minoru Kiuchi stating that the government aims to balance economic strength with fiscal sustainability, though he declined to comment directly on interest rates. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama noted that officials will review budget requests and manage debt issuance to maintain market credibility, while expressing the expectation that the central bank will steer policy appropriately to achieve a stable 2% inflation target. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair faces downward pressure as the US Dollar (USD) holds losses despite the potential for further Federal Reserve policy tightening. The Fed recently raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%, marking its first rate increase in three years and aligning with market expectations. Policymakers also signaled that another hike remains possible before the end of the year. Source: FX Street

Daily Market Report 09/16/2026 EUR/USD ranged in the mid 1.15s overnight. The Euro (EUR) trades subduedly at around 1.1535 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair trades cautiously ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%-4.00% at the policy meeting later in the day are 92.5%. This suggests that the Fed will break its five-meeting hold streak and kick-off the monetary tightening cycle. With the Fed looking almost certain to tighten monetary conditions, market reaction would be majorly influenced by the monetary policy statement and Chairman Kevin Warsh’s remarks on inflation and the economic outlook. In the policy meeting, investors will also focus on Fed’s dot plot, which shows where policymakers see interest rates heading in the near term. According to the CME FedWatch tool there is an almost 79% chance that the Fed will deliver at least two interest rate hikes by the year-end. On the Eurozone front, European Central Bank (ECB) officials have signaled that inflationary pressures could remain higher and prompt the need of more interest rate hikes this year. Last week, the ECB raised its policy rates by 25 bps, as expected. The GBP/USD pair attracts fresh sellers following an intraday uptick to the 1.3500 neighborhood and drops to the lower end of its daily range during the first half of the European session on Wednesday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3470-1.3465 region, just above a one-month low touched on Tuesday, as traders keenly await the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting. Heading into the key central bank event, growing acceptance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will stick to its hawkish stance amid oil-driven inflation risks and elevated US bond yields acts as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD). Apart from this, escalating tensions in the Middle East underpin the safe-haven buck, capping the GBP/USD pair, which fails to benefit from the expected rise in UK consumer inflation. The Japanese Yen (JPY) turns flat against the US Dollar (USD) at around 155.00 in the European trading session on Wednesday after recovering its early losses. The USD/JPY pair is expected to trade cautiously, with market participants awaiting the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision at 18:00 GMT. On the Tokyo front, investors keenly await the Bank of Japan’s policy decision on Friday. The BoJ is highly anticipated to hike interest rates by 25 bps to 1.25%. Source: FX Street

Daily Market Report 09/15/2026 EUR/USD ranged in the mid 1.15s overnight. The Euro (EUR) remains on the defensive against the US Dollar (USD) as investors brace for the first interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) after three years. Mixed Eurozone economic sentiment and trade balance figures have failed to lift the EUR/USD, which trades just above monthly lows near 1.1520, after having depreciated for the last four days. The US Dollar, on the other hand, remains buoyed by rising bets of a Federal Reserve (Fed) quarter-point hike on Wednesday. According to ING Analyst Francesco Pesole, “yesterday, the dollar finally caught up with the tailwinds we’ve highlighted over the past couple of weeks: supported front-end rates, high oil prices, and a soft risk environment.” Looking ahead, Pesole expects some consolidation in the very near term, suggesting the Dollar “may stay in tighter ranges until the FOMC delivers its verdict tomorrow evening,” and appreciate further later on, as “the broader backdrop keeps the odds in favor of further dollar gains.” The British Pound (GBP) reflects a mixed performance against its currency peers after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for three months ending July. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the economy created 67K fresh jobs, lower than 83K in three months ending June. The ILO Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.9%, while it was expected to increase to 5%. Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses, a key measure of wage growth, rose steadily by 3.5% Year-on-Year (YoY), as expected. The wage growth measure Including Bonuses also grew in line with estimates of 3.9%, slower than the previous reading of 4.2%, revised higher from 4.1%. USD/JPY trades at 154.87, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds below the neckline of a bearish Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern at 155.20. Momentum indicators on the daily chart have turned higher but remain within bearish territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37.70, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is below zero, reinforcing the idea that rallies are still likely to face selling pressure. The market is showing a mild correction from oversold levels that might lead to a confirmation of the H&S pattern with a failure at the mentioned 155.20. If that level is broken. The next targets are the September 4 high, near 156.75, and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), at 158.40. A rejection at 155.20 on the contrary, brings the January and February lows, at the 152.20 area, back into focus. The H&S’s measured target lies near the October 2025 low in the 146.60 area. Source: FX Street

Daily Market Report 09/14/2026 EUR/USD ranged in the mid to the high 1.15s overnight. The Euro (EUR) accelerates its downtrend against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, weighed by risk-averse markets, with Oil prices above the $100 level and a stronger US Dollar, amid rising hopes of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike on Wednesday. The EUR/USD pair is trading at fresh monthly lows below 1.1550 at the time of writing, after extending the reversal from 1.1650 highs last week. The US Dollar, on the other hand, is drawing some support from risk-aversion and higher hopes that the Fed will finally hike the Federal Funds Rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4.00% range next Wednesday. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures released on Friday showed that core inflation rose in August at its fastest pace in the last two months, forcing the central bank to tighten its monetary policy or risk a credibility crisis. Analysts warn that if the Fed “does not take action this week to address upside inflation risks, it could trigger a sharp sell-off for the US Dollar and long-term US Treasuries by undermining confidence in their willingness to get on top of inflation.” They argue that this uncertainty “could be one reason why US Dollar gains have only been limited so far on the back of the hawkish repricing of Fed rate hike expectations. The GBP/USD pair comes under heavy selling at the start of a new week and drops to the lower end of its monthly range, near the 1.3480 region during the first half of the European session. The intraday decline is sponsored by a broadly firmer US Dollar (USD), though bearish traders might refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of key central bank events this week. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is scheduled to announce its decision at the end of a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, which will be followed by the Bank of England (BoE) meeting on Thursday. The market focus, meanwhile, would be on central banks’ policy outlook, which, in turn, would provide some meaningful impetus to the GBP/USD pair and help in determining the next leg of a directional move. USD/JPY rebounds after posting modest losses the previous day, trading around 154.60 during European hours on Monday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains amid rising oil prices and growing Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets. The upside of the USD/JPY cross could be restrained as the Japanese Yen (JPY) could find tailwinds from a shifting market landscape, driven by expectations of faster Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy tightening, the unravelling of carry trades, and increased capital repatriation by domestic players. Markets anticipate the central bank will raise borrowing costs to 1.25% to address lingering price pressures, pushing rates to a peak not seen in over three decades. Source: FX Street